Prediction markets are a good way of rapidly surfacing and summarizing information, balancing the wisdom of the crowd with that of the outliers willing to put their skin in the game. Unlike polls, they can update every minute. For the 2024 election, both Polymarket and Kalshi have good dashboards that you can follow to get up-to-the-minute information about who is winning. However, they lack a feature that I find useful: the ability to simulate the election many times and see the distribution of outcomes.
This page uses the state-by-state odds from Polymarket to simulate the 2024 election. It runs 1,000,000 simulations of the election, drawing from these probabilities. The simulations should not be taken literally before election night because they assume that each state is independent. But as the polls close and results start coming in, prediction market odds adjust to reflect correlated terms, and the simulations become more useful.
The page refreshes data every five minutes, so there is no need to reload it.
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